Global Warming: Rehashed

After a very nice and long holiday break, I'm ready to tackle good ol' Global Warming again.

I recently was asked about a report issued by the University of Washington yesterday that claims warming has indeed occurred on Antarctica. Well, seeing as this was a constant thorn in the side of global warming alarmists (due to most scientific research showing a cooling trend over the past several decades), the media couldn't wait to jump on it. The NY Times, BBC, Live Science, CNN, and many more all carried this story. And, they all showed this scary picture of Antarctica as well:


I find it strange none of these media outlets thought it prudent to print these stories however (By the way, these are all peer-reviewed scholarly articles):

• From "Antarctic Climate Cooling and Terrestrial Ecosystem Response" (Nature.com)

"Our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn."

• Cavalieri and Parkinson, J. Geophys. Res. 113, C07004 (2008)
• Comiso and Nishio, J. Geophys. Res. 113, CO2S07 (2008).
• "A Doubling in Snow Accumulation in the Western Antarctic Peninsula Since 1850," by the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the U.S. National Science Foundation (Geophysical Research Letters)

Well, here's a few reasons why this report is to be handled with extreme skepticism:

1. Michael Mann is co-author. This is the man who helped create the infamous "hockey stick" graph that was been completely discredited yet widely propagandized. (See here)
   
2. We have seen record ice growth in the past several years (See here, here and here. And also the graph below; notice the record ice extent)

3. Numerous scientists have been saying for years that volcanoes could be the culprit for observed warming (remember the vast majority is gaining ice, but there are certainly areas of warming). Check out these two graphs and notice the correlation of where the proposed warming is and where the volcanoes are.

4. The Antarctic sea has only gotten colder.

5. This "warming" paper relied heavily on Antarctic stations, of which there are few and they mostly lie on the outer edge (see map below)

6. UN IPCC lead author, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, who is most definitely not a global warming skeptic even criticized this report by saying, "I remain somewhat skeptical...It is hard to make data where none exist"

7. Former Colorado State Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., senior scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder had this to say:

"In terms of the significance of their paper, it overstates what they have obtained from their analysis,”

-And-

“In the abstract they write, for example, ‘West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1C per decade over the past 50 years.’ However, even a cursory view of Figure 2 shows that since the late 1990s, the region has been cooling in their analysis in this region. The paper would be more balanced if they presented this result, even if they cannot explain why."

8. The authors also use a "new technique" that has never been thoroughly vetted.

There's many more counters to this, but in reality, the burden is on the global warming alarmists to support their theory with proof, otherwise the skeptics are forced to prove a negative.

Still not sure? Check out these unabashed and unashamed "skeptic" sites, because after all, scientists are supposed to be skeptics not believers:

http://icecap.us/
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/ http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20020015034521data_trunc_sys.shtml

Bonus: Global Warming hits rock bottom on the list of priorities for Americans.

UPDATE: I just read this letter on Anthony Watts' page, very interesting:

letter dated 1/22/09

Eric,

Let me first say that this is my own opinion and does not represent the agency I work for. I feel your study is absolutely wrong.

There are very few stations in Antarctica to begin with and only a hand full with 50 years of data. Satellite data is just approaching thirty years of available information. In my experience as a day to day forecaster that has to travel and do field work in Antarctica the summer seasons have been getting colder. In the late 1980s helicopters were used to take our personnel to Williams Field from McMurdo Station due to the annual receding of the Ross Ice Shelf, but in the past few years the thaw has been limited and vehicles can continue to make the transition and drive on the ice. One climate note to pass along is December 2006 was the coldest December ever for McMurdo Station. In a synoptic perspective the cooler sea surface temperatures have kept the maritime storms farther offshore in the summer season and the colder more dense air has rolled from the South Pole to the ice shelf.

There was a paper presented at the AMS Conference in New Orleans last year noting over 70% of the continent was cooling due to the ozone hole. We launch balloons into the stratosphere and the anticyclone that develops over the South Pole has been displaced and slow to establish itself over the past five seasons. The pattern in the troposphere has reflected this trend with more maritime (warmer) air around the Antarctic Peninsula which is also where most of the automated weather stations are located for West Antarctica which will give you the average warmer readings and skew the data for all of West Antarctica.

With statistics you can make numbers go to almost any conclusion you want. It saddens me to see members of the scientific community do this for media coverage.

Sincerely,

Ross Hays

*Note: I'm not sure why the font and spacing is messing up. I'm thinking of moving the blog to Wordpress. I have this issue often...

Christmas is Upon Us!

I'm really feeling the Christmas spirit this year, even though it was 61F here yesterday... But, I'm confident Indy will produce a white Christmas for me this year. Anyway, Lori and I will be traveling back home to Indy tomorrow to see family and friends. Needless to say, we're excited.

Here's a great video making the rounds on YouTube (already at 9.2 million hits). After Lori and I downloaded the song, we found it on YouTube and then realized that the group is from Indiana University, woot woot!! Take a listen, it's awesome:

Holiday Statistics and Random Facts

I love statistics. Not the class you took in high school/college, but rather facts and figures of everyday things, like the population of the ten biggest cities, the coldest/hottest temperatures ever recorded, etc. So, here's some holiday statistics and some random facts that I dug up:

-Approximately 20 billion letters, packages and cards will be sent in the U.S. between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

-A traditional Christmas dinner in early England was the head of a pig prepared with mustard.

-During the 6-day Thanksgiving travel period, the number of long-distance trips (to and from a ­destination 50 miles or more away) increases by 54 percent, and during the Christmas/New Year’s Holiday period the number rises by 23 percent, compared to the average number for the remainder of the year.

-An artificial spider and web are often included in the decorations on Ukrainian Christmas trees. A spider web found on Christmas morning is believed to bring good luck.

-Americans bought 31.3 million real Christmas trees and bought 17.4 million fake trees in 2007.

-An average household in America will mail out 28 Christmas cards each year and see 28 eight cards return in their place.

-Charles Dickens' initial choice for Scrooge's statement "Bah Humbug" was "Bah Christmas."

-Christmas caroling began as an old English custom called Wassailing - toasting neighbors to a long and healthy life.

-Jewelery stores did 21% of their year's sales in December last year.

-Christmas trees are edible. Many parts of pines, spruces, and firs can be eaten. The needles are a good source of vitamin C. Pine nuts, or pine cones, are also a good source of nutrition.

-During World War II it was necessary for Americans to mail Christmas gifts early for the troops in Europe to receive them in time. Merchants joined in the effort to remind the public to shop and mail early and the protracted shopping season was born.

-For every real Christmas tree harvested, 2 to 3 seedlings are planted in its place.

Interim

Lori and I just got back from 10 days at home for the holiday. We had a really great time and we're already looking forward to going back for Christmas. I've kept my distance from the news because I want to enjoy the holidays, however it's hard to completely ignore it. The Bombay (I prefer the old name, vs. Mumbai) shootings, the economy, Obama's cabinet picks, the Big Auto 3 bailout, etc.

So, we're officially in a recession now, but instead of repeating the mantra of doom and gloom to yourself, look for the positives out of this:

• Gas is extremely low and will probably go lower. An increase is unlikely in the near future.
• Inflation is actually pretty low (3.66%) and may actually drop.
  
• Consumer prices (related to inflation) dropped as well, hence why Black Friday was so nice this year (I hope you took advantage!)
• Interest rates are really low on existing debt (i.e. student loans, mortgages). However, pay off those high interest debts immediately.
  
• The dollar is generally surging against other currencies because the world still believes that we are the bedrock of the world's economy, thus vacations abroad are cheaper right now.
• Great time to buy a car (GM, Ford, and Toyota all dropped more than 25% in sales), thus prices and discounts are much higher right now.
• Charitably giving is actually either maintaining or increasing despite the economic times.
• Wonderful time to pay off loans against your 401(k) or pay into your retirement vehicle because your money will buy you more shares. Do it!
• And finally, recessions are cyclical, so we're just in that place right now, but this too shall pass.

Home Stretch

I've been quite busy lately because I've been trying to build a lot of credit time for next week when I'll be able to take the whole week off to be home in Indy! We've already put up our Christmas tree and the apartment is decorated, so we're officially ready for the holidays.

Something I wanted to share with everyone, particularly in this doom and gloom economic paradigm we're in, is a good way to save some money this Christmas. This year's Black Friday is going to be the best one in decades because October's negative economic indicators scared the crap out of most retailers. With consumer confidence low and retail sales even lower, stores are willing to sell consumer goods at extremely low prices this year to entice "frightened" consumers. Everyone should take advantage of this. Prices will probably never be this cheap again, at least not until the next recession.

There are some great websites you can visit so that you can form your plan of attack:

-www.tgiblackfriday.com
-www.blackfriday.info
-www.bfads.net

Remember though, it's only a bargain if you need it :-)

And a word of caution; don't wait until the day after Christmas to shop because retailers have been jacking up prices on this day knowing that people are wanting to spend the ever-more-popular gift card. When people use gift cards they tend to not pay as much attention to the price, and retailers know this, hence the immediate price increase.

By the way, I'm essentially ignoring the broader world news right now because (1) I'm too busy (2) It's annoying and (3) I'm in too good a mood because of the upcoming holidays.

Happy Hunting!

A Family Visit

Lori's parents and her little sister came to visit us this past weekend. We ventured into Baltimore, DC, and Great Falls National Park.

Baltimore is hard to classify. It's one of the oldest cities in America, so there's a good deal of history. It latched on to industrialization in the early 1800's and didn't let go, providing the Eastern US with steel and auto manufacturing for decades, however the process of de-industrialization continues to occur moving the city firmly into a service economy. Baltimore Harbor still serves as a decently large shipping port, where you can see huge ships loading and off-loading their goods.

The "Inner Harbor," as it's called, is very nice and touristy, with shops, restaurants, museums, an aquarium and street performers. There's also a neighborhood known as Fells Point, which has a nice variety of bars, pubs, clubs and a large market located on cobbled stoned roads.

Lori and Kari at the Inner Harbor

Great Falls National Park is a very scenic and seemingly out-of-place park. I say that because it reminds me of something you would see in the Rocky Mountains, yet it's just 2-3 miles outside of the Beltway. The park is located on both the Maryland and Virginia sides of the Potomac River. We were on the side with the B&O Canal which runs nearly 150 miles from DC to western Maryland. Used to transport goods until WWI, there are still a few working locks with a boat that one can ride pulled by mules on the original towpath.

Here's part of the canal with a one of the locks, which were activated by good old fashioned man power.

The "falls" refers to extreme rapids in the river which drop in elevation by 60 feet in a relatively short distance. The pictures don't do it justice because it's hard to get a sense of scale.

This was a smaller off-set of the river, as we headed towards the Falls.

For perspective, a person in this picture would be nothing but a speck.

I'm always up for going into the District. I usually see something new and always enjoy seeing architecture. The five of us went up into the tower of the Old Post Office. It's an historic structure that used to serve as the city's post office, but has since been converted into offices, shops and restaurants. The tower contains the Congress Bells which are rung at the beginning of new Congressional sessions and other special occasions. It has an amazing view.

Looking from the tower towards the Capitol Building.

Good Times!

Election Sewage

For myself, presidential politics have officially become frustrating and annoying. I therefore can not wait until this highly divisive election is over. I'm sick of seeing people wear Obama buttons, stickers, and t-shirts, as if it's a new Abercrombie fad. I would say something equal for McCain-Palin, but I've yet to see a single reverse instance. Republicans seem to not "wear" their candidate, at least not in this area. I have seen a multitude of yard signs for both candidates and even more bumper stickers (which will be on their cars for the next 4-6 years--I still see Kerry stickers...) .

I like the fact that people care about this country's future, but this has reached insanity. You've got towns changing their name to "Obama," six Brazilian politicians have officially renamed themselves "Barrack Obama," a fact-challenged movie about a sitting President (which is unprecedented) and was conveniently rushed for release before the election, and even an eighth grade textbook with a chapter about Obama.

Some Points:
-McCain has run a very negative campaign and Obama has an arrogance about him that annoys me.
-McCain seems far too hard-headed and Obama seems too social-elitist.
-McCain appears ignorant of modern technology and Obama has some extremely shady connections (Rezko, Ayers, Rev. Wright, Dorhn, Farrakhan, etc.).
-Palin is inexperienced, Biden is a blowhard.
-Many on both sides are voting for race. Inner-city Chicago is just as racist as rural southern Alabama. Which sign would last longer: a McCain sign in Harlem, or an Obama sign in Jena, Louisiana?
-Obama is a closet socialist, McCain is a war hawk.
-Both are adamant anthropogenic global warming believers.
-Obama will raise taxes because he'll allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, with additional taxes on top of that for the top 5%. He's attempting "trickle-up" economics. Carter tried this...
-McCain wants to tax energy in a back door fashion, raising costs in the name of lowering oil, coal, and natural gas production.

I'm tired of the stereotypes, the political jabbing, and the "gotcha" journalism. Those from the Northeast and West Coast look down on the "hicks" of the south or the supposed simpletons of the Midwest, whereas you have some of the worst poverty, ignorance, and violence in the liberal cities (Detroit, Chicago, Washington DC, NYC, Baltimore, Philly, etc.). Who's more ignorant, a gangsta-wannabe drop out from Philly or the son of a hick farmer in Mississippi?

At least November is almost here, thank God.

Comedy's Take on the Financial Crisis

Central Banks from around the world, to include the Federal Reserve, coordinated a half point drop in interest rates. This was a smart move and should have helped the markets more than it did. The fact that it didn't is just more evidence that much of what we're seeing is psychology rather than economics. After we hit bottom, there will be too many good deals that investors will no longer be able to ignore, thus the rebound will begin, because low prices sow their own seeds of recovery. Ironically, the housing market is looking quite appealing to me right now. Just need to find that down payment...

Here's two videos, one from Saturday Night Live and the other from Comedy Central's Steven Colbert, with their take on the financial crisis:

Uplift

With the economic crisis at hand along with the extreme mudslinging of the presidential candidates, I thought it was a good time for another "good news" post. Here's some assorted good news stories:
-14 year old saves his two younger sisters from house fire.
-New "wonder pill" could prevent 80% of heat attacks in people over 55, may only cost $1.
-A breakthrough cancer surgery saved a terminal patient.
-Three times the thief tried to kill him and three times the gun jammed.
-Crude oil is falling like a rock, now below $89.
-The dollar is surging against other currencies.
-Baghdad Zoo gets pair of tiger cubs from US.
-Optimism is good for you: "Optimists are more resistant to infectious illness and are better at fending off chronic diseases of middle age."
-It's almost never as bad as the media says it is.
-It's autumn.
-Aliens aren't attacking.

-And, you're not this guy:

And enjoy this totally random literal singing of "Take on me." :-)

Financial Crisis, Part 2

Source: www.necn.com

After an astonishing and surprising defeat of the so-called 'bailout plan' by the House, it looks like the Senate has passed a concentrated pile of crap as a result. The original bill numbered just 3 pages, but it has now swollen to over 450 pages. I've linked it here.

Even at a time of crisis, the politicians have managed to inject a tremendous amount of pork, to include:

-Manufacturers of kids' wooden arrows - $6 million

-Puerto Rican and Virgin Is- lands rum producers - $192 million

-Wool research

-Auto-racing tracks - $128 million

-Corporations operating in American Samoa - $33 million

-Small- to medium-budget film and television productions - $10 million

-and many more...

The NY Post goes on to say that according to the Congressional Budget Office the total "will add about $112 billion to budget deficits over the next five years because the bill doesn't contain enough offsetting revenue hikes to keep the budget balanced."

Frustrating stuff for sure. I'm against this bill, but it will most likely pass the House next week amid constant calls "to do something!" Yet, a monstrosity has been created and political tensions are just simply too high right now for true rational thought to take place on this matter.

Despite this, I do believe the economy will get worse for a little while, but it will recover as it always has. The media is salivating at this crisis and is all too willing to feed the flames. Case in
point: The BBC, in a Q&A section about the bailout bill, said this in reference to the bill's failure:

"The Dow Jones index lost 770 points - its largest one-day points fall in its history - after the bill's rejection."

In reality, the Dow didn't even break into the top ten losses in terms of percentage, which is far more representative of the truth. It's not hard to find doomsday headlines and articles, but the truth is the market is correcting itself for grossly overblown oil prices, housing prices, and commodity prices. Investors thought prices could go nowhere but up, but they were obviously wrong. The upside to this situation is that the dollar is up (ie. worth more), oil is way down (which has a ripple effect across the economy), people's debt is worth less and interest rates on those debts are extremely low (credit cards are a different matter), it WILL get better eventually...it always, always does. Just like the climate, the economy is a cycle. Pay your bills on time and there's nothing to worry about.

The Financial Crisis

Humans are panicky creatures. The media has always played on this fundamental truth and they're surely doing that now with the financial crisis, and yes it is a financial crisis. However, in my opinion, the other pillars of our economy are doing just fine. The economy, just like the climate, goes in cycles and we are simply in a lower part of the cycle.

It should be known though that it wasn't capitalism that has failed us here, rather it was corporatism (aka crony capitalism). Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae are known as government sponsored entities (GSE's). These are quasi-socialist organizations that were essentially creating their own capital and were running amok with bad mortgage deals. Fannie Mae was set up in the 1930's under FDR as a way to add liquidity to the mortgage market and became a legal monopoly. Freddie Mac came in 1970 for the same general purpose. Both showed signs of needing reform for the past 20 years as more and more lower income people were given "cheap" loans (that many have since defaulted on). Now, after years of mishandling, we the taxpayer get to bail these behemoths out.

I'm a firm capitalist and it is extremely alarming to see the nationalization of our mortgage and financial markets as if this was 1950's Cuba. In fact, we haven't had a capitalist economy since before FDR. However, we're now put into a situation where we have to do this bailout to stem off any greater harm. Despite all of this, the optimist in me sees this as a potential opportunity for this country. I have long thought that this crisis is a great opportunity to weed out the truly bad economic influences in our markets. Stronger and more efficient companies will be left standing as a result.

Just yesterday I was thinking that the government could actually make a lot of money off of this deal if the economy rebounds in short order. Well, Andy Kessler of the Wall Street Journal laid this possibility out today. This could actually end up being a good thing. Warren Buffet, who knows a thing or two about economics, showed that he thinks a recovery is inevitable (as it always is in this country) and invested $5 billion into Goldman Sachs.

As for who's to blame. Well, many people. Here's a video laying out some context.